With the first NFL game of the 2026 season kicking off tonight, it’s time to answer one of fantasy football’s perennial questions:
Do draft grades actually matter?
For the third consecutive season, we review the KC Guyz draft results using grades from our friends at the Football Guys.
Football Guys Draft Rankings Then and Now
To determine whether draft grades have any predictive value, we went back to the start of our draft rankings to compare the Draft Score pre-season to the post-season result:
2023:
*This year we had 14 owners and 4 saw no post season play.
2024:
2025:
2026:
Based on the evidence, our publication concludes that draft grades have a meaningful correlation to playoff appearances where the top graded teams make the playoffs, the bottom graded teams flush to the toilet bowl, and those in the middle compete.
But this newsletter does not stop here.
Introducing the Ryan Draft Kit
After six seasons of dominance in the KC Guyz, we are pleased, for the first time, to unveil a proprietary analytical tool developed by the FSB Zuggernauts:
The Ryan Draft Kit™ (RDK)
The RDK combines statistical modeling, draft theory, and Zisman’s unwavering confidence in his own opinions.
The results speak for themselves.
Well, technically, we speak for the results. But the results are very compelling.
The Optimal Draft Position
Here is what the RDK determined to be the best draft positions this year according to total projected points:
So, How Did Everyone Do?
The results may not come as a surprise to our readership as we see the common names (Ryan/Spencer) atop the board.
Here are the full 2026 RDK draft rankings:
In the chart above, Value Over Expected is the difference between the official drafted team and the expected points based on original draft position. While Chris* may be projected fewest points, Travis had the worst draft. Lesson learned: if you’re whale watching during the draft, you may just find the whale was you all along.
*Chris completed the draft without a defense, so we credited his team with the Lions’ points who he picked up immediately following the conclusion of the draft. That still left him 12 points shy of Matt.
Can We Trust the RDK?
“But Commissioner, how do we know to trust the RDK? Sure, Zisman leads the league in all-time points. But that can’t mean his draft strategy is actually good,” asked in the voice of John Gilmore.
These, John, are fair questions.
Using the 2025 version of the RDK, we analyzed last year’s draft to determine whether the RDK could predict what actually happened.
The results:
The RDK correctly predicted the top point scorers of the 2025 season (Ryan and Matt) and the top 4 teams (with Collin and Trey) as playoff qualifiers.
The Verdict
After years of success from Zisman and his Zuggernauts, one thing is clear: the RDK does not miss.
Good luck to all KC Guyz as we begin the 2026 NFL season.
