Luck vs. Skill in Fantasy Football

Mobley’s Misinformation

In the latest episode of the KC Guyz podcast (November 6th, “Week 9 Recap + Week 10 Preview”), guest host Spencer “Spener” Mobley referenced this 2018 MIT study on the role of skill and luck in fantasy sports, making the claim that fantasy football is driven predominantly by skill. In today’s newsletter, we analyze this claim, to dismantle Mobley’s argument and illustrate with data that redraft fantasy is driven predominantly by luck.

We also point out immediately after his ridiculous claim, he lost his first matchup since September.

The MIT study Mobley referenced analyzed salary-cap games in daily fantasy head-to-head matchups, a context that’s worlds away from redraft fantasy leagues like the KC Guyz. Salary cap leagues allow overlapping player selections, while redraft leagues hinge on exclusive picks, giving each team a unique roster that shifts the dynamic away from skill and toward luck. The deciding factor for any redraft team’s success isn’t necessarily its manager’s ability; rather, it’s often uncontrollable variables like season ending injuries and the points their opponents score against them.

This point isn’t new. In 2023, our article Schedule Swap introduced the concept that “luck-of-the-schedule” might play a greater role in league outcomes than strategy. We later explored this theme in Interdimensional Cable¹, illustrating how a win-against-the-median approach favored truly strong teams over those coasting on fortuitous matchups.

Unrelated, but it was in this newsletter we referred to Matt O’Neil as the “Grapist” which is, to date, this publication’s favorite joke. ↩︎

The Data Tells All?

To further explore the impact of luck, we analyzed five years of KC Guyz data—66 individual teams from 2020 through week 9 of 2024. To kick things off, we plotted total “points for” versus total wins in a scatter plot, expecting points scored to show some correlation with wins.

Clearly, a positive trend appeared. But as any responsible statistician would, we checked the coefficient of determination, the statistical value that reflects how well a model predicts outcomes. For our data, this number was a mere 46%. In simpler terms, the relationship between points scored and total wins is about as accurate, less so even, than a coin flip.

We then turned our attention to Points Against as a potential predictor. Could fewer points against correlate to fewer losses?

Again, our analysis yielded some relationship with a correlation coefficient of just 31%, suggesting that your opponents’ performances are about as accurate at predicting success as individual performance. Regardless, while both models hint at a trend, neither comes close to reliably predicting a team’s success. Ultimately, both metrics fall short of statistically significant results needed to establish fantasy football as a skill-driven game.

To those who argue that strategic maneuvers—such as draft research, waiver wire optimization, and start/sit decisions—offer an edge, we concede this may be true in more casual leagues such as those with colleagues, family, or b-tier friends. But in the KC Guyz, everyone is doing the homework. We all spend hours a week on fantasy sports and consume endless analytics, yet anecdotally who can remember a time when the “Fantasy Footballers” crew haven’t been in the toilet bowl. If skill were a significant factor, the most informed players would consistently rise to the top. But year after year, these fantasy addicts find themselves eliminated by mid-season injuries or unfortunate matchups.

We reached out to Mobley for comment, who we are not sure ever read the original article past the headline, and he said that, “I stand with MIT.”

A Challenge

Not only does this office believe in our analytics, we believe in our skill. We invite Mobley to a rest of season H2H DFS competition where the loser must join this year’s toilet bowl champ in the half marathon punishment.

Division Implications

While we maintain the current divisional groups are fair, ahead of the 2025 Owners Meeting, we invite league members to submit rule changes they believe to be more fair for divisional selections. We post rule submissions in real time to the bottom of the Rules page, and given that this office enjoys the rules as is, we will not be introducing new rules unless they are formally submitted. Examples of rules you could submit include:

Top 3 finalists this season get to name their division and draft who they want in their division next year.
Random divisions assigned during the owners meeting.
Division Removal.

Fun Implications

Regardless of our findings above, we believe that fantasy football is most fun when we corporately believe in the illusion of skill. Therefore, this office believes we have said what must be said and will continue publishing newsletters the rest of season to humiliate those teams worst at fantasy football (i.e. Travis Cotton and his very sad 2-8 team no longer Blessed + Highly Favored).

In Pursuit of Fair Play

This office issues a reminder to all league members: tactical tanking is not permissible, and every lineup decision must be defensible. Any dubious situations will be subject to review and, if necessary, judgment by this office. Consider the precedent: in Week 7, when Sam Arends faced off against John Gilmore, he opted not to start a defense. We ruled this acceptable, as Arends made a strategic choice to avoid dropping any players on his roster (of outstanding Bears players we might add).

In Week 3, Cotton nearly left his lineup unset due to a lack of cell reception deep in the Rocky Mountains. Again, this office would have allowed this to occur, as it was genuine lack of planning rather than intentional neglect.

We also extend leniency for scenarios where, say, a team is ahead by a single point with only one player left to play on Monday night. If a manager decides to bench that player to avoid the risk of negative points, this office considers that a sound strategy, not an abuse of discretion—even if their decision has indirect impact on other teams.

However, what we will not permit is any team with a secure playoff spot—say, sitting at 10-2 and holding the #1 seed—to bench their entire lineup as a form of bravado. Such actions, even if they theoretically allow weaker teams a path to the playoffs, go against the spirit of the game. Should this arise, we reserve the right to set lineups as needed.

Of course, we trust that such guidance will scarcely be necessary, given the exemplary sportsmanship displayed by the KC Guyz over the years… barring, of course, the Zisman-Cotton collusion incident of 2020. Or the time Green and Kennedy roster-dumped.

On second thought, it’s good that we’ve put this policy on record.

Request to Readers

This office makes efforts to ensure we celebrate—and humble—all members of the KC Guyz based on each week’s storylines. We want you to feel part of this publication, and invite you to send us your stories worth sharing.